In rich countries, when economic growth declines by three or four
percentage points, some people lose their jobs and possibly their houses, but
they recover when the economy rebounds.
In poor African countries,
children get pulled out of school—and don't return. They miss out on becoming productive
adults. In some cases, children die before they even have a chance to go to
school. If the current growth collapse is typical of the ones Africa has
experienced in the past, an additional
700,000 African children may die before their first birthday.
In short, the effects of fluctuations in the global marketplace on Africa will be permanent.
So the idea that aid may be
threatened
because of the recession in rich countries seems to have the logic
backwards. Precisely because the effects in rich countries are
temporary, resources should go to places where they may be permanent. Of
course, there are political pressures to spend domestically. But do
politicians in rich countries really think that a few more votes are
worth more than the lives of the infants who will die as a result of the
recession?
Furthermore, the relatively modest sum spent on aid to Africa in the
past decade was at least partly responsible for the continent’s rapid
growth. From 1998-2008, aid to Africa was increasing and economic
growth was accelerating (to over 6 percent in 2007); poverty was
declining and human development, especially primary school completion
rates and the spread of HIV/AIDS, was improving. African countries had
strengthened their macroeconomic policies—inflation had dropped to half
its level in the mid-1990s—so that aid was more productive. Private
capital was flowing in at a faster rate than in any other continent. All
of these developments have come to a grinding halt because of the
global economic crisis—a crisis that was not remotely the fault of
Africans. By increasing aid to Africa, the international community has a
chance to reverse this trend and prevent a temporary shock from having
permanent consequences.
Why aid to Africa must increase