The Sky is Falling! The Sky is Falling!

Japan, 2011

No, it isn't really falling, Chicken Little, even though it seems like it is these days. Earthquakes, tsunamis, destructive storms and floods, and all.

China 2008

Japan, Haiti, Chile, China, and Turkey have caught our attention in recent months. Unusual? Are such things occurring more frequently? No, they're not.

Unsuccessful People

From the book “How To Become a Total Failure: 

The Ten Rules of Highly Unsuccessful People,” 

by Bill Guillory and Phil Davis.

1. Resist learning anything new.  (The more you know, the more people will expect.)

2. Don’t share what you know with others.  (Knowledge is power. Don’t give away your power.)

3. Be a jerk.  (Jerks get what they want and decent behavior isn't expected.)

4. Always look out for number one.  (It's a zero-sum game.)

5. It’s all about the money.  (Money equals success!)

6. Promise things you have no intention of doing.   (The more you promise, the more responsible you look.)

7. It’s always someone else’s fault.  (Your success is dependent on your ability to CYA.)

8. Truth is in the eye of the beholder.  (The truth that benefits you most.)

9. Do the least that’s necessary for success.  (Be all that you can be with as little effort as possible.)

10. The customer is someone you must tolerate.  (Customers are never satisfied no matter what you do.)

I ran across this book after many years and three careers.  It explains so much about why some well-placed individuals, even some agencies were so difficult to engage.  Not that I didn't make my share of mistakes along the way, of course; just noting the rice-bowling, backside-covering, minimal-performing players along the way.  It explains a lot, doesn't it.

Let's add an eleventh ...

11. Divert decisions to consensus meetings, data gathering, and follow-on meetings.  (That way, if anything goes wrong, there are others that can be blamed.)

Crash Course. Again.

We learned our lesson following the crash of our marketplace in 1929. In adopting the 1933 Banking Act ... Congress placed “general restrictions upon the operating policy of Federal Reserve banks with the intent to limit the extensions of credit for ordinary business purposes and to make plain that their resources are not to be used to support speculation.” ~FDR

The rules were in response to rampant speculation, one of the principal causes of the stock market crash in the late 1920’s.

For today, speculative investments (wagers) are,  “... more than the gross  domestic product of every country on earth, combined.”  It's the same rampant speculation, updated.

Apparently, we forgot what we learned. Here's how it played out:

May, 1994, Greenspan tells Congress there is "negligible" risk that financial derivatives might someday require a taxpayer bailout.

December, 1994, Orange County, California, declares bankruptcy due to the loss of $1.5 Billion in derivatives.

March, 1997, the SEC exempted some of Enron's partnerships from accounting controls.

May, 1998, Greenspan, Rubin, and Levitt (SEC) effectively opposed regulating the derivatives market.

October, 1998, Clinton signs into law H.R.4328 prohibiting the restriction or regulation of hybrid instrument or swap agreements.

In 1999 the Congress repealed the 1933 Banking Act, essentially unwinding regulations enacted to curb the rampant speculation that caused the Great Crash of 1929.

In 2005, financial innovation is replacing production as the growth engine. "Global financial assets (bank, stock, bond) were $165 Trillion; nearly four times global GDP."

"The notional value of global derivatives (i.e., imaginary value assets) reaches $454 Trillion, more than three times the size of all financial assets worldwide." ~Unterman, Aaron, INNOVATIVE DESTRUCTION--STRUCTURED FINANCE AND CREDIT MARKET REFORM IN THE BUBBLE ERA, 5 Hastings Bus. L.J. 53,56-58.  These are fictitious assets for which real money was paid.

 

In 2007, Hedge funds account for nearly half the trading volume in the US.

April, 2008, the IMF reports prospective losses reaching the $1 Trillion mark.
Sophisticated methods of speculation arose from the relaxing of the banking rules established in the 1933 Banking Act. Eventually, these new models for speculation morphed into a whole new system of investment vehicles sold over-the-counter to spread, reduce and hedge risks. These new vehicles are called credit derivative products. The markets that spawned these new credit derivative products were “completely lacking in transparency, and virtually unregulated.”

How did this affect the world? Corporate ethical failure (later referred to as the 'moral hazard'), sanctioned abandonment of ethical standards, and knowingly corrupt business practices slammed the entire world with astronomical losses, price increases of 100% and more for food in developing countries, loss of aid revenues, and the death of hundreds of thousands due to starvation and inability to afford medical care. The poor are paying the price.

A UNESCO study highlights wider human development impacts of the '08 financial crisis specifically, including the prospect of an increase of between 200,000 and 400,000 in infant mortality.

"Now a child born in sub-Saharan Africa faces an under-five mortality rate that is 24 times higher than in the industrialized nations." When you live on $2 a day and spend half on food, an increase in the price of food is deadly.

"It's a crisis because this region is still a poor region where half the population and more live below $2 a day," says UNESCO's Fengler. "They spend on average half of their income on food. And obviously if prices go up, then they reduce the food intake."

At best, this is fraud, extortion, insider trading, market manipulation, and negligent homicide. It's not likely that there are many true innocents among the decision makers in the financial industry. Perhaps not any at all.

RESULTS OF DERIVATIVE MARKET SPECULATION   

The failure to properly price these risky investments caused the collapse of the credit derivative market and precipitated a world banking crisis. Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan explains this in his 23 October 2008 testimony before the U.S. House of Representatives Government Oversight Committee: "It was the failure to properly price such risky assets that precipitated the crisis. In recent decades, a vast risk management and pricing system has evolved, combining the best insights of mathematicians and finance experts supported by major advances in computer and communications technology.

A Nobel Prize was awarded for the discovery of the pricing model that underpins much of the advance in derivatives markets. Professor Robert Merton from Harvard and Professor Myron Scholes from Stanford were awarded the prize in 1997 for their method to determine the value of derivatives.

This modern risk management paradigm held sway for decades. The whole intellectual edifice, however, collapsed in the summer of last year (2007) because the data imputed into the risk management models generally covered only the past two decades, a period of euphoria." ~ Alan Greenspan October 2008.   It's a ponzi scheme that only works as long as new players are entering the market.  At the first hiccup, worldwide crash. A Nobel Prize!

Just a few years earlier, credit derivatives had been trumpeted by Mr. Greenspan and other financial leaders. In May 2003, Mr. Greenspan said credit derivatives as “critical for economic stability.” The promise of the credit derivative pioneers seemed unlimited: “you or your colleagues could produce a nearly riskless security." Five years later, the entire market collapsed under the financial burden of these credit derivatives.

A somber Alan Greenspan admitted in his October 2008 testimony before the Congress that moral hazard was the core reason for the Derivative Market Crash of 2008:

"The consequent surge in global demand for U.S. subprime securities by banks, hedge, and pension funds supported by the unrealistically positive rating designations by credit agencies was, in my judgment, the core of the problem. Demand became so aggressive that too many securitizers and lenders believed they were able to create and sell mortgage backed securities so quickly that they never put their shareholder’ capital at risk and hence did not have the incentive to evaluate the credit quality of what they were selling. Pressures on lenders to supply more ‘paper’ collapsed subprime underwriting standards from 2005 forward. Uncritical acceptance of credit ratings by purchasers of these toxic assets has led to huge losses."

As time passed, it became clear that home-buyers and homeowners that took these predatory mortgages and loans would never be able to pay back these loans. In turn, it became clear that the securitized mortgages were bad debt. The SEC Chairman made this point in a November 2008 speech and stated that “billions in worthless mortgage paper” had been issued:

"Above all in the current turmoil, the markets and investors need transparency. From the moment that the collapse of lending standards created billions in worthless mortgage paper - and billions more in hidden risk - market participants have had enormous difficulty discovering and pricing that risk. Illiquid instruments that were not long ago rated AAA for credit quality were hidden in off-balance sheet vehicles and elaborately structured securities." -- SEC Chairman 2008

The promise that credit derivatives would hedge risks created a moral hazard zone.  Promoters of mortgage back securities grew careless. Greed took hold and credit derivatives ballooned into a $58 trillion market.

Oh, Magoo, you've done it again.

The derivative business grew “between the gaps and seams of the current regulatory system.” It took the credit derivative market only 10 years to reach $58 trillion. It was “more than the gross domestic product of every country on earth, combined.” Under the weight of $58 trillion in credit derivatives, the market collapsed.

* ~ THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR REGULATORY REFORM

During April 2008, International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that global losses for financial institutions would approach $1 trillion.^[i] One year later, the IMF estimated cumulative losses of banks and other financial institutions globally would exceed $4 trillion.^[ii]

No enemy of our country has caused more damage; ever.

And folks complain about the 'Occupy Wall Street' demonstrators, as though there were no adequate reason for such behavior.

No enemy of our country has caused more damage. Ever.

If you have an opinion, join the public conversation. If not, you might want to review the details of your retirement plan. And perhaps read on ...

 

Greenspan and the U.S. were central but not causal; folks like those listed below are the cause, exclusively. Greed, theft, corrupt business practices, and criminal intent were their guiding structures. They were incredibly effective; they took from each and every household on earth. In most cases, they stole more than the household would make over several years.  

One more time - no enemy of our country has caused more damage; ever.

January 2010 - After Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley announced hefty profits last fall, the Obama administration's pay czar said that he'd cap pay at Citigroup, Bank of America, and five other bailed-out companies. The move was largely symbolic in that it capped salaries for only 25 executives, kept big stock bonuses in place, and did nothing to address the culture of rewarding folks who sowed our economic destruction. Below, some of the players who made out like bandits during the bubble and the bailout.

WALL STREET EXECS BELOW AND THEIR COMPENSATION MEASURED AGAINST 

THEIR FIRM'S BAILOUT

Joseph Cassano, AIG Financial Products Executive, 1987-2008

 CLAIM TO FAME: Mr. Credit-Default Swap. In 2008, his unit cost AIG $99 billion. (AIG then paid $1.5 billion in bonuses and awards.)

QUOTE: Before the crash: "It is hard for us...to even see a scenario within any kind of realm of reason that would see us losing $1 in any of those transactions."

HIS BONUS, 2008: $34 million

HIS HAUL, 2000-2008: $280 million

AIG'S TARP: $69.8 billion

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $112 billion
_______________________________

Vikram Pandit, Citigroup CEO, 2007-present

CLAIM TO FAME: Ordered a $50 million private jet, announced huge layoffs, and jacked up credit card APRs—after getting bailed out

QUOTE: Told Congress last February, "My salary should be $1 per year with no bonus." Didn't mention that he took $1.6 million in stock options as Citi lost $18.7 billion in 2008.

HIS HAUL, 2008: $10.8 million

_______________________________

Robert Rubin, Citigroup Board of Directors, 1999-2009

CLAIM TO FAME: As Clinton's treasury secretary, he pushed to overturn regulations prohibiting finance-bank hybrids such as...Citigroup. QUOTE: Wishes he could have reined in Citi but "I don't know what I could have done" as just a board member.

HIS HAUL, 1999-2009: $124 million

CITI'S TARP: $45 billion ($20 billion repaid)

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $328.7 billion

_______________________________

Ken Lewis, Bank of America CEO and President, 2001-2009

CLAIM TO FAME: Okayed $3.6 billion of Merrill Lynch bonuses when buying the troubled firm. Said he'd return $1 million in past earnings, but still gets a $53 million pension.

QUOTE: He's against regulating "the banks that caused this mess" because they'd been "held accountable by the toughest, most unforgiving master of all: the free market."

HIS HAUL, 2008: $10 million

HIS HAUL, 2001-2007: $145 million

B of A's TARP: $45 billion (repaid)

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $18.1 billion

_______________________________

Jamie Dimon, JPMorgan Chase CEO and President, 2005-present

CLAIM TO FAME: Cutting comments ("That's the dumbest thing I've ever heard!") and cutting perks ("You're a businessman. Pay for your own Wall Street Journal.")

QUOTE: Over lunch at the Four Seasons: "Corporations can waste a tremendous amount of money. It's destructive. It's wrong."

HIS HAUL, 2008: $19.7 million

HIS HAUL, 2005-2007: $95.7 million

JPMC'S TARP: $25 billion (repaid)

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $73.1 billion

_______________________________

Lloyd Blankfein, Goldman Sachs CEO and Chairman, 2006-present

CLAIM TO FAME: Oversaw Goldman's risky bets on the housing bubble, then turned the investment firm into a bank so it could get TARP money

QUOTE: Says the financial industry looks "self-serving and greedy in hindsight" but that he's been "doing God's work."

HIS HAUL, 2008: $42.9 million

HIS HAUL, 2006-2007: $114.4 million

GOLDMAN'S TARP: $10 billion (repaid)

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $43.4 billion

_______________________________

John G. Stumpf, Wells Fargo CEO, 2007-present

CLAIM TO FAME: Made a tidy $12.6 million in first six months on the job

QUOTE: Asked before Congress about his 2007 pay, he conceded that he'd gotten $67 million in stock—but "at the values that pertained in 2007, which wouldn't look familiar to you now."

HIS HAUL, 2008: $13.8 million

WELLS' TARP: $25 billion (repaid)

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $13.4 billion

_______________________________

John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley CEO, 2005-2009, and Chairman, 2005-present

CLAIM TO FAME: Earned the sobriquet Mack the Knife by slashing jobs. His battle cry: "There's blood in the water; let's go kill!"

QUOTE: Told Congress, "If you gave me no bonus in the best year, I would still be here," but later griped that smaller post-bust bonuses led to "an exodus of key people."

HIS HAUL, 2008: $1.2 million

HIS HAUL, 2005-2007: $77.7 million

MORGAN'S TARP: $10 billion (repaid)

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $25.9 billion

_______________________________

John Thain, Merrill Lynch CEO, 2007-2009

CLAIM TO FAME: Asked for a $10 million-plus bonus as Merrill lost $27.6 billion in 2008. Then redid his office for $1.2 million and approved bonuses all around. As the firm's hidden debts nearly scuttled its sale to B of A, he headed to Vail.

QUOTE: Bonuses were "the right thing to do for...the reward of the people who were performing."

HIS HAUL, 2007: $83.1 million

MERRILL'S TARP: $10 billion

ADDITIONAL BAILOUT: $6.8 billion

_______________________________

______________________________________________________________

Is it getting better?  Take a look at the major players:

The Savant's Door

The fact that savant skills can surface by some ‘release’ process raises intriguing questions about dormant capacity existing within us all.

To know as we are known.

Ever wonder about that portion of your brain that's untapped? We've heard that only 10% or so is fully engaged. Nonsense. It's a silly myth, debunked many times over. All of your brain is mapped and all is engaged.

However!  And this is disturbingly significant news, there's more that we don't know about the mind's function than we suspected until recently.

The savant, the individual with unusual intellectual ability, was long thought to be malfunctioning in some fashion.  It was as though they had been given some impressive single skill to compensate for the lack or loss in other areas.  The autistic savant, particularly, was portrayed sympathetically as interesting but not as a revelation of anything meaningful.

Studies regarding both the congenital and acquired savant have in recent years upended that narrow-minded view.

For example, Daniel Tammet is an autistic savant. He can perform mind-boggling mathematical calculations at breakneck speeds. But unlike other savants, who can perform similar feats, Tammet can describe how he does it. He speaks seven languages and works as a math and language tutor. Now scientists are asking whether his exceptional abilities are the key to unlock the secrets of autism.

As another example, Derek Amato acquired extraordinary musical insight following a concussion.  He came to a keyboard and within a few days was playing like a professional.  Subsequently, as a professional musician, he declined medical treatment to moderate the abilities he has acquired.  His family is thrilled with his startling change.

It was an addition for Derek.  Not compensation for some loss, but as though a door in his mind had opened, allowing him to see, sense, imagine, and produce music.  What door might that be?  It was there all along, it seems, as though he had been designed that way but inhibited from knowing or using it until the concussion.  Suddenly, he could comprehend the instrument and the sounds.  He learned at an astounding pace and began to produce original work which is well received. 

There are a dozen or so modern cases of the acquired savant, all of which suggest that extraordinary intellectual abilities are part of the design from which we're made.  For now, the abilities are only available as an anomaly, triggered by injury or perhaps disease.  But then the door does open sometimes, an apparent malfunction of the current inhibitory physiology.   It's almost as though God made us like himself, and somehow we lost access to a lot of it, closed it off.  Funny, now that I think of it, I've heard that before.

The fact that savant skills, entirely dormant before CNS injury or disease, can surface by some ‘release’ (disinhibition) process raises intriguing questions about dormant capacity existing within us all.  ~Wisconsin Medical Society

The question the scientists have yet to ask is, "why?"  Why might the ability to quickly grasp and understand be inherent in us but unavailable?  Why might there be in many or all of us the ability to be an extraordinary musician or scientist or artist?

Now through a glass darkly, but then ....  Perhaps we are all made to know, to see, to revel in beauty and knowledge and the magnificence of it all.  Science and math, music and art, nature and the universe.  The whole of creation groans as though in childbirth, waiting ... for us to see?

Endnote: The academic community is cautiously considering what all this might mean.  Significant studies point to inherent intellectual abilities within the existing structure and processing design of our minds that are not the result of injury or impairment, but that rather are released by them.

... suggests that autistic cognitive atypicalities are more accurately described as an entirely different processing system, rather than as a collection of negative cascade effects resulting from one or many major impairments (excesses or deficits) impeding typical processing and development.   ~ US NIH

The video here is a look a bit farther afield on extraordinary abilities.  My Brilliant Brain is a compelling three part documentary series exploring the incredible inner workings of the human brain. The programs look at a group of remarkable people and poses questions about the origins of genius: are these extraordinary abilities genetic, developed or acquired by accident?  Absolutely provocative and, perhaps, a bit unsettling.