Informed Decisions

'Politicians discussing global warming'
~a statue in Berlin

When asked his approach regarding, "the whole issue of climate change, the Paris agreement, how you’ll approach it," President-elect Trump said, “the hottest day ever was in 1890-something, 98,” adding, “you know, you can make lots of cases for different views.” ~22 Nov 16

We hope for a willingness to learn in this administration and in ourselves.

Meanwhile, how do we as friends handle the discussion?  Can we labor together through the facts and opinions without becoming adversaries?

The graphic below shows long-term global trends from multiple studies, data sets, and international science organizations.

New to the public forum, ocean heat content adds an additional perspective.  Around 90% of the heat accumulated from global warming resides in the oceans.  Changes affect several systems including the path and extent of surface and deep-ocean currents, rate of flow, El Niña and La Niña, and global weather patterns.  A favorite subject of mine for a few decades, this is perhaps the centerpiece of change impact.

This figure shows changes in ocean heat content between 1955 and 2015.
Ocean heat content is measured in joules, a unit of energy, and compared
against the 1971–2000 average, which is set at zero for reference.
Choosing a different baseline period would not change the shape of the
data over time. The lines were independently calculated using different
methods by government agencies in three countries: the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Australia’s Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), and Japan
Meteorological Agency’s Meteorological Research Institute (MRI/JMA).
For reference, an increase of 1 unit on this graph (1 x 1022 joules) is
equal to approximately 18 times the total amount of energy used by all
the people on Earth in a year. (Ref)

Data sources: CSIRO, 2016 (Ref); MRI/JMA, 2016 (Ref); NOAA, 2016 (Ref)

The tropical Pacific (8.2% of the earth's surface area) is a major player in absorbing the accumulating heat.  That regional surface segment will contain absorbed heat for a while, but recent trends show that the Pacific rather suddenly passed significant heat content to the Indian Ocean, which has seen an unprecedented rise in temperature over the past decade.  The Indian Ocean increase is equal to about 70% of the heat absorbed by the atmosphere in the last decade.

The analysis builds on a series of papers that track the causes for what’s been dubbed the 'hiatus' or the global warming slowdown, a period over the past 15 years that has seen surface temperatures rise slower than they did the previous decade.

Shifts in Pacific tradewinds appear to have helped temporarily store heat in the upper level of the ocean.  Since 2003, upper ocean heat content has actually been slowly decreasing in the tropical Pacific with a commensurate increase in the Indian Ocean.  A similar anomaly occurred, perhaps briefly, in a small segment of the north Atlantic as annual current volume fell 30%.  Total heat accumulation continues, and ocean currents appear to respond to the change in balances.  

UPDATE 7 MAY 17: The administration told countries around the world  in writing last week that the United States is reconsidering its existing climate change rules and that it will not consider new ones that could hurt the economy or impact energy production at home.

We're so much smarter than our ancestors ...

We do indeed have different information. We know how to Google, but we'd likely starve without a grocery store.

Increasingly dense population appears to have been the foundation for most if not all significant human advancements. Explosive growth in industry, technology, science, and art can all be traced back to a tip-over point of population and proximity, where interconnectedness sparks collaboration and idea generation, where innovations are preserved across generations and geography, and skills can be shared.

Intellect and mental capacity are perhaps unchanged in the last 20,000 years or more.  We have no compelling science to the contrary.  Tools and art and complex cultures emerged long ago, but only in the more densely populated areas.  More sparsely populated areas, even though occupied by the same humans, waited until they also reached that density before joining the high-speed development path. Europe and western Asia were exploding with cultural growth while eastern and southern Asia followed much later.

It appears that significant advances in most categories require us to live close and work together, to talk and exchange ideas, and to make our way forward together.  If we're spread too sparsely across the landscape, new ideas tend to disappear before they can take root in the culture.

Cause and effect?  Since the 17th century, we've seen population increase 1000% at an accelerating rate.  In that time, we've seen stunning change in culture, in science, and in industry.  The rate of change appears to follow the rate of population change as well.

Question:  Did the emerging science create the population growth with improvements in agriculture, education, and health?  Or did the interactions of an increasingly dense population create the opportunity for such development?  👀 Post hoc, ergo propter hoc?
Next question:  How much of the resulting change is helpful and how much is not?  Have we overpopulated some areas?
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So rather than evolutionary advances in brain power with some branches of humanity being smarter than others, it is more likely to be just population growth and proximity that trigger the rapid development we observe.  See a summary of the issue in a new study by UCL (University College London) scientists published in the journal Science.*

"Ironically, our finding that successful innovation depends less on how smart you are than how connected you are seems as relevant today as it was 90,000 years ago."

A lesson for today? Of course. Stay connected and involved in social discourse, understand what's changing, or ... perhaps be left behind. That's the difficulty faced today by government, church, educational systems, and ideologies.  Truth is unchangeable, of course, but everything else will inevitably change.  That's the difficulty we face as individuals; how do we participate in the inevitable changes we and our children will face?

Tomorrow will not be like yesterday.  They've been telling us that for a long time.**
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An interesting development; indigenous populations often resist the incursion of the developed world; native Americans (North and South, particularly Brazil), aboriginal Australians, etc.  Why might that be the case?  Are they uninformed or deliberately opposed on principle?

Ref: High population density triggers cultural explosions*
Ref: Late Pleistocene climate change and the global expansion of anatomically modern humans
Ref: Adam Powell, Stephen Shennan, and Mark G. Thomas. Late Pleistocene Demography and the Appearance of Modern Human Behavior, Science, 2009; 324 (5932): 1298 DOI: 10.1126/science.1170165
Ref: World Population Growth and Change
Ref: Change Bringers**

This of course is a particularly controversial subject.  😀
And for an additional perspective, if everyone lived as close together as they do in Manhattan, the entire world's population would fit on half the island of Madagascar with room to spare.  And beaches.

The Path of Tradition

Truth is unchanging.  Everything else changes.

About Christians and Conservatives:  some Christians today are perhaps off the traditional path.  The church has a long history of decrying the exploitation of the poor and supporting union movements.  (See Rerum Novarm)
G.K. Chesterton’s writing about the rich often hits Occupy Wall Street levels -- “The rich man is bribed… that is why he is rich.”

Conservatives today, however, insist that poverty be explained as a moral failure.

Success as the product of moral superiority is the so-called Protestant ethic, but it is also, as Nietzsche noted, the “ethic of the hangman.”  The poor are considered culpable so that they can be punished - like today’s inadequate minimum wage or the public shaming of those on welfare.  

Jesus was neither conservative nor capitalist, interestingly, and the story of Lazarus and the rich man is a horror story appropriate for today's discussions.

There's a much better way.  Of course.  That's the good news part.

What comes first?

He wasn't talking about someone's sheep and goats, of course. Just an illustration

to make a point, like that other one about the camel and needle's eye.

Why would he say things like that?

"I will be a swift witness against … those who cheat the worker of his wages, who oppress widows and the fatherless, against … those who thrust aside the sojourner, and do not honor me, says the Lord of hosts." Malachi 3:5.

You have to feed and care for the horse that pulls the plow, of course, but apparently you don't have to pay employees a living wage. One in five of our own children live in poverty, though we are the wealthiest country in the world. The unfortunate among us are held back, and refugees are turned away at the door though they flee for their lives.

As individuals, how do we face the real world and the issues of conscience brought on by honestly doing so?

The priority in our culture is to live like the world's wealthiest 10%, as that seems to be the common choice.  Many, perhaps surprisingly, will see a better way and will choose to bring a few others along as they make their way forward.

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It's always a joy to see how many discover the good path, the good news.

So how about a magnificent life and purpose --

What does it take?  First comes a change of heart (of ethic) perhaps, and shaking off our culture-based priorities.  Then, lend a hand for however long it takes to make a difference; for years, if needed.  Through school and perhaps college, through troublesome times, through the last years.  Such a heart includes family and friends and others in the effort, does it not?

In the larger context of community and country, how might we make a better place for others?

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I certainly don't have all the answers.

I was surprised to find that much

of what I thought I might do

was unneeded. Most folks

I met on the far side of the
world asked for nothing. They
enjoyed just being friends, a little
encouragement, and perhaps a connection
 to the larger world.  I had to ask how I might
be a helpful friend.

It's a long journey, and more fun than just sitting at the top of the food chain.  And there's always more to learn.

Can a conservative be liberal during the Christmas season?

   Of course.

Can we have personal convictions that cover the political spectrum from left to right?
   Of course.

Can the spirit of Christmas make room for folks who may not agree with us?
   Of course.

Will our Muslim friends smile and say Merry Christmas when we meet.

   Probably.  
They're pretty open minded about such things.

And our Jewish friends?
   Same heart, same mind, same grace.

Can I presume that a political party is likely to represent well all those things that are important to me and to my family?

   Of course not.

So while the political left and right are screaming and insulting each other and fostering the most destructive emotions this Christmas season, do I have to choose a side?  
   Yes, of course.  

Either I join in the fear and hate, or I choose a better path.  Hate ruins pretty much everything, but it's not going to ruin my Christmas.  Yours either, if you're smart.  🎅

The point of remembering the birth of Jesus is to remember our Father's great love for us all.  All.  Right?

Humans of New York

Humans of New York - extraordinary insight into real life.

“I grew up in the suburbs. 

I used to think that I could write a prescription for a poor man: ‘Get a job, save your money, pull yourself up by the bootstraps.’ 

I don’t believe that anymore. I was ignorant to the experiences of poor people. I’d invite anyone to come and meet the people who live in this neighborhood. Right now we are surrounded by working poor people. These are the people who sell your tools at Sears, and fix your roofs, and take care of your parents, and mow your lawns, and serve your meals. They’re not getting a living wage. There’s no money left to save. There’s nothing left if they get sick. Nothing left if their car breaks down. And God forbid they make a mistake, because there’s nothing left to pay fines or fees. When you’re down here, the system will continue to kick dirt in your face. You can’t pull yourself up when there’s nothing to grab onto. We aren’t paying our brothers and sisters enough to live. 

We want them to serve us, but we aren’t serving them.” ~Humans of New York


In a world invisible to many, the majority of working Americans have continued in decline for almost half a century.


If you haven't seen the work by 'Humans of New York', you've missed a lot.