Tuesday, May 2, 2017

Gaslighting

A majority of earth and climate scientists are convinced by the evidence that humans are significantly contributing to global warming, but there are naysayers.  
The discussion is informative.

"CO2 traps heat -- more CO2 means a warmer climate.  That is basic physics, borne out by the history of climate. Denying these well-established facts is about as smart as claiming the Earth is flat, and best left to cranks, ideologues and fossil fuel lobbyists."  Stefan Rahmstorf, professor of ocean physics at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.  That's one side of the debate, of course.

I hope Trump listens to his daughter Ivanka on climate change, Mike ...     CNBC-1 hour ago - The former New York mayor says he wants President Trump to change his mind about pulling out of the Paris agreement. "We are two-thirds of ...

(CNN) Until last Friday night, the eve of the People's Climate March on Washington, the US government website EPA.gov explained how humans are warming the planet by burning fossil fuels and why that is important for us and for future generations.  Now the page carries an Orwellian message: "This page is being updated."
"Thank you for your interest in this topic," the message continues. "We are currently updating our website to reflect EPA's priorities under the leadership of President Trump and [EPA] Administrator Pruitt."
It's been clear for some time what Donald Trump and his appointees prefer to think of climate change.  At worst, they call it a hoax. At best, they say it's overblown -- no big deal.  We need more science, they insist, while stripping government science agencies of funding

Based on research spanning more than half a century, scientists understand that human contribution is the single critical change factor. Regular reviews of actively publishing climate scientists (Ref) reveal that the majority agree: climate-warming trends over the past century are extremely likely due to human activities.  Many scientific organizations worldwide have independently issued public statements endorsing this position.  That said, there are a minority who disagree and who should be heard objectively.  Beyond the science, biased contrarians suggest global warming ended about 19 years ago (despite the 10 warmest years on record occurring in that period) and that any further warming is unlikely to be a critical concern. (Ref)  The disagreement is much politicised, unfortunately, rather than debated reasonably.  

Statement from eighteen scientific associations - "Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver." (2009) (Ref)


The administration's position is troubling, and not only because their policies may contribute to human-induced global warming with perhaps worsening droughts and rising seas. It is troubling because Trump and this administration are apparently "gaslighting" the public on the science to date.

With the same playbook the tobacco industry used, Trump and other political deniers inject uncertainty and confusion into climate policy discussions.  Without addressing the science, they discount it as inconsequential.  You can do that when you're powerful; you can insert your preferred truth without factual backing.


Gaslighting.  Why might anyone do that?  Why might a group of power players do that?

Here's one reason to consider ... Exxon knew about fossil fuel and climate change 40 years ago.  They did their own research, then covered the results with a multi-million dollar obfuscation campaign, much like the tobacco industry's strategy.

Is there relevant opinion on both sides of the issue, and is the corporate/political arena the appropriate venue?  In science, what is relevant is independently reproducible results.  
________________________________________________________
Scientific Organizations Affirming That Climate Change Has Been Largely Enabled by Human Action

  1. Academia Chilena de Ciencias, Chile
  2. Academia das Ciencias de Lisboa, Portugal
  3. Academia de Ciencias de la República Dominicana
  4. Academia de Ciencias Físicas, Matemáticas y Naturales de Venezuela
  5. Academia de Ciencias Medicas, Fisicas y Naturales de Guatemala
  6. Academia Mexicana de Ciencias,Mexico
  7. Academia Nacional de Ciencias de Bolivia
  8. Academia Nacional de Ciencias del Peru
  9. Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
  10. Académie des Sciences, France
  11. Academies of Arts, Humanities and Sciences of Canada
  12. Academy of Athens
  13. Academy of Science of Mozambique
  14. Academy of Science of South Africa
  15. Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS)
  16. Academy of Sciences Malaysia
  17. Academy of Sciences of Moldova
  18. Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic
  19. Academy of Sciences of the Islamic Republic of Iran
  20. Academy of Scientific Research and Technology, Egypt
  21. Academy of the Royal Society of New Zealand
  22. Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei, Italy
  23. Africa Centre for Climate and Earth Systems Science
  24. African Academy of Sciences
  25. Albanian Academy of Sciences
  26. Amazon Environmental Research Institute
  27. American Anthropological Association
  28. American Association for the Advancement of Science
  29. American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)
  30. American Astronomical Society
  31. American Chemical Society
  32. American Fisheries Society
  33. American Geophysical Union
  34. American Institute of Biological Sciences
  35. American Institute of Physics
  36. American Meteorological Society
  37. American Physical Society
  38. American Public Health Association
  39. American Quaternary Association
  40. American Society for Microbiology
  41. American Society of Agronomy
  42. American Society of Civil Engineers
  43. American Society of Plant Biologists
  44. American Statistical Association
  45. Association of Ecosystem Research Centers
  46. Australian Academy of Science
  47. Australian Bureau of Meteorology
  48. Australian Coral Reef Society
  49. Australian Institute of Marine Science
  50. Australian Institute of Physics
  51. Australian Marine Sciences Association
  52. Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society  
  53. Bangladesh Academy of Sciences
  54. Botanical Society of America
  55. Brazilian Academy of Sciences
  56. British Antarctic Survey
  57. Bulgarian Academy of Sciences
  58. California Academy of Sciences
  59. Cameroon Academy of Sciences
  60. Canadian Association of Physicists
  61. Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
  62. Canadian Geophysical Union
  63. Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  64. Canadian Society of Soil Science
  65. Canadian Society of Zoologists
  66. Caribbean Academy of Sciences views
  67. Center for International Forestry Research
  68. Chinese Academy of Sciences
  69. Colombian Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences
  70. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) (Australia)
  71. Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
  72. Croatian Academy of Arts and Sciences
  73. Crop Science Society of America
  74. Cuban Academy of Sciences
  75. Delegation of the Finnish Academies of Science and Letters
  76. Ecological Society of America
  77. Ecological Society of Australia
  78. Environmental Protection Agency
  79. European Academy of Sciences and Arts
  80. European Federation of Geologists
  81. European Geosciences Union
  82. European Physical Society
  83. European Science Foundation
  84. Federation of American Scientists
  85. French Academy of Sciences
  86. Geological Society of America
  87. Geological Society of Australia
  88. Geological Society of London
  89. Georgian Academy of Sciences  
  90. German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina  
  91. Ghana Academy of Arts and Sciences
  92. Indian National Science Academy
  93. Indonesian Academy of Sciences  
  94. Institute of Ecology and Environmental Management
  95. Institute of Marine Engineering, Science and Technology
  96. Institute of Professional Engineers New Zealand
  97. Institution of Mechanical Engineers, UK
  98. InterAcademy Council
  99. International Alliance of Research Universities
  100. International Arctic Science Committee
  101. International Association for Great Lakes Research
  102. International Council for Science
  103. International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences
  104. International Research Institute for Climate and Society
  105. International Union for Quaternary Research
  106. International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
  107. International Union of Pure and Applied Physics
  108. Islamic World Academy of Sciences
  109. Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities
  110. Kenya National Academy of Sciences
  111. Korean Academy of Science and Technology
  112. Kosovo Academy of Sciences and Arts
  113. l'Académie des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal
  114. Latin American Academy of Sciences
  115. Latvian Academy of Sciences
  116. Lithuanian Academy of Sciences
  117. Madagascar National Academy of Arts, Letters, and Sciences
  118. Mauritius Academy of Science and Technology
  119. Montenegrin Academy of Sciences and Arts
  120. National Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences, Argentina
  121. National Academy of Sciences of Armenia
  122. National Academy of Sciences of the Kyrgyz Republic
  123. National Academy of Sciences, Sri Lanka
  124. National Academy of Sciences, United States of America
  125. National Aeronautics and Space Administration  
  126. National Association of Geoscience Teachers
  127. National Association of State Foresters
  128. National Center for Atmospheric Research  
  129. National Council of Engineers Australia
  130. National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, New Zealand
  131. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  132. National Research Council
  133. National Science Foundation
  134. Natural England
  135. Natural Environment Research Council, UK
  136. Natural Science Collections Alliance
  137. Network of African Science Academies
  138. New York Academy of Sciences
  139. Nicaraguan Academy of Sciences
  140. Nigerian Academy of Sciences
  141. Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters
  142. Oklahoma Climatological Survey
  143. Organization of Biological Field Stations
  144. Pakistan Academy of Sciences
  145. Palestine Academy for Science and Technology
  146. Pew Center on Global Climate Change
  147. Polish Academy of Sciences
  148. Romanian Academy
  149. Royal Academies for Science and the Arts of Belgium
  150. Royal Academy of Exact, Physical and Natural Sciences of Spain
  151. Royal Astronomical Society, UK
  152. Royal Danish Academy of Sciences and Letters
  153. Royal Irish Academy
  154. Royal Meteorological Society (UK)
  155. Royal Netherlands Academy of Arts and Sciences
  156. Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research
  157. Royal Scientific Society of Jordan
  158. Royal Society of Canada
  159. Royal Society of Chemistry, UK
  160. Royal Society of the United Kingdom
  161. Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences
  162. Russian Academy of Sciences
  163. Science and Technology, Australia  
  164. Science Council of Japan
  165. Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research
  166. Scientific Committee on Solar-Terrestrial Physics
  167. Scripps Institution of Oceanography
  168. Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts
  169. Slovak Academy of Sciences
  170. Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts
  171. Society for Ecological Restoration International
  172. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
  173. Society of American Foresters   
  174. Society of Biology (UK)   
  175. Society of Systematic Biologists
  176. Soil Science Society of America  
  177. Sudan Academy of Sciences
  178. Sudanese National Academy of Science
  179. Tanzania Academy of Sciences
  180. The Wildlife Society (international)
  181. Turkish Academy of Sciences
  182. Uganda National Academy of Sciences
  183. Union of German Academies of Sciences and Humanities
  184. United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
  185. University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
  186. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
  187. Woods Hole Research Center
  188. World Association of Zoos and Aquariums
  189. World Federation of Public Health Associations
  190. World Forestry Congress
  191. World Health Organization
  192. World Meteorological Organization
  193. Zambia Academy of Sciences
  194. Zimbabwe Academy of Sciences



OTHER RESOURCES

  1. J. Cook, et al, "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming," Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11 No. 4, (13 April 2016); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/11/4/048002

    Quotation from page 6: "The number of papers rejecting AGW [Anthropogenic, or human-caused, Global Warming] is a miniscule proportion of the published research, with the percentage slightly decreasing over time. Among papers expressing a position on AGW, an overwhelming percentage (97.2% based on self-ratings, 97.1% based on abstract ratings) endorses the scientific consensus on AGW.”

    J. Cook, et al, "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," Environmental Research Letters Vol. 8 No. 2, (15 May 2013); DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024

    Quotation from page 3: "Among abstracts that expressed a position on AGW, 97.1% endorsed the scientific consensus. Among scientists who expressed a position on AGW in their abstract, 98.4% endorsed the consensus.”

    W. R. L. Anderegg, “Expert Credibility in Climate Change,” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Vol. 107 No. 27, 12107-12109 (21 June 2010); DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1003187107.

    P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22; DOI: 10.1029/2009EO030002.

    N. Oreskes, “Beyond the Ivory Tower: The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change,” Science Vol. 306 no. 5702, p. 1686 (3 December 2004); DOI: 10.1126/science.1103618.
  2. And for a look at the contrarian view - WHY SCIENTISTS DISAGREE ABOUT GLOBAL WARMINg (NOV 2015)
  3. And a list of organizations which deny climate change and human impact

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